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Discussion on the reasons why the price of aluminum ingot is in shock

Discussion on the reasons why the price of aluminum ingot is in shock

Discussion on the reasons why the price of aluminum ingot is in shock

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Discussion on the reasons why the price of aluminum ingot is in shock

From the average annual price trend chart of aluminum ingot prices in East China quoted by Chinalco, it can be seen that aluminum ingot prices in 2022 are in a downward trend of shock, and it is expected that aluminum prices will maintain a volatile market in the future. The reasons are as follows:

First, China dominates the global supply of electrolytic aluminum and its output remains high.

China is the world's largest producer of electrolytic aluminum, according to IAI data, in 2021 global electrolytic aluminum production of 67.34 million tons, China's electrolytic aluminum production of 38.92 million tons, accounting for 58% of global production. Since 2002, the global electrolytic aluminum increment has basically come from China, especially in the past five years, China's electrolytic aluminum increment has contributed more than 90% of the global increment.

Second, the external is strong and the internal is weak, and the import window is closed, resulting in the rise in the price of electrolytic aluminum raw materials.

Since October 2021, the price of Lun aluminum has begun to be higher than the price of nonferrous aluminum ingots in the Yangtze River, and the import window continues to close. Imported primary aluminum is an important supplement to the domestic supply of aluminum ingots, with 1.06 million tons of imports in 2020 and 1.57 million tons of imports in 2021. Under the pattern of external strength and internal weakness, the import window is closed and the export channel is opened. According to customs data, from January to February, domestic imports of primary aluminum were 56,800 tons, down 77% year-on-year. According to Aladdin's forecast, the annual import of aluminum ingots in 2022 will be about 800,000 tons, which is half of the previous year.

Third, bauxite imports have increased significantly and alumina production capacity is in excess.

Bauxite: Domestic enterprises in the overseas layout of bauxite began to produce, in recent years, the import of bauxite rapid growth, and become the main factor to reduce the price of domestic bauxite.

Alumina: Production capacity, the existing domestic alumina production capacity of 88.52 million tons, capacity utilization rate is only 81%, and it is expected that there will be 9 million tons of new capacity this year. On the demand side, the ceiling of electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been established after the supply-side reform, which has led to the suppression of the demand for alumina. According to the future 45 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity ceiling calculation, the domestic need for alumina up to 87.3 million tons, the existing production capacity has been oversupply, which leads to the alumina link profit can only be break-even or loss.

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